According to @cas_abbe, BTC has repeatedly bottomed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement since Q1 2023, and last month price tapped this level and bounced, indicating a potential bottom, source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 2, 2025. The author states that a monthly candle close below the 38.2% retracement would likely signal the bull run is over, source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 2, 2025. Trading takeaway: monitor the monthly close versus the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a key risk trigger—holding above favors continuation, while a close below signals trend breakdown in this framework, source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 2, 2025.